What is an epidemic?

An epidemic occurs when each infected individual infects more than one other person, on average. The term average has little meaning in relation to an epidemic other than in this definition. In reality, for HIV, a few individuals are infecting a large number of others while most people who are HIV-positive do not infect any others.

This system is conceived so as to permit HIV-negative people to avoid these HIV-positive individuals. Naturally, all HIV-positive individuals can use this same system to ensure that they are sero-compatible with their partners - sero-sorting.

How does an epidemic stop?

An epidemic stops when each infected individual, on average (that meaningless word again), infects fewer than one other individual. For some infections, such as modern strains of influenza, this process would lead to the disease disappearing from the population very rapidly. Other diseases, such as HIV/AIDS would need decades to disappear from a population even if almost no new infections were to be registered.

If a subgroup of a population were to use this system, for example the gays of New York, the number of HIV-negative individuals who would get infected annually would be a fraction of those infected at present.

What is happening in the United States?

The overall number of new infections has stabilized at around 40,000 annually over the past 10 years - it was around 150,000 annually 15 years ago. However, this figure is a total and is misleading - it has to be broken down.

New HIV infections have almost disappeared in children - thanks to pregnant women getting tested and taking medication.

New HIV infections in gays/bisexuals - especially blacks - is increasing rapidly.

New infections in heterosexual women is increasing at a slower pace - it is, again, increasing at a faster pace for black and hispanic women.

New infections in heterosexual men, especially white men, is decreasing at a slow pace.

Research indicates that the USA is about to suffer a new wave of HIV infections due to poor sexual education and a perception by much of the public, especially those most at risk, that AIDS is now a curable infection.